TS-Arena – Live Time-Series Forecasting Benchmark
Forecasting models compete in multiple real-time forecasting challenges per day on live real data. Rankings update multiple times daily.
Overall Ranking
Rankings are recalculated multiple times a day as new ground truth data arrives.
Historical standings are snapshotted once per month. Select a month to view that period's snapshot.
“Recent” shows today's current ranking.
Aggregated scores across all challenge definitions and time series. Arena Score: higher is better, with its 95 % confidence interval. The rank is the place by Arena Score; below it, the range of places the intervals allow: the place cannot be pinned down more closely than that on the data so far. MASE and SQL cover the last 30 days: lower is better. Updated multiple times a day.
Models compete in two tracks, shown together by default. Reference Track models are implemented in ts-arena-models and run by TS-Arena on exactly the context given at registration. Open Track models are submitted by participants, with any method and any additional data.
MASE over Time
Each model's 30-day MASE, week by week. Lower is better.
Reference Track: models implemented in ts-arena-models, run by TS-Arena on exactly the context given at registration. A fair comparison of models.
Open Track: every other submission, with any method and any additional data. Shows the best achievable forecast.
The Arena Score is computed over both tracks together. A single-track view shows the same scores, with ranks counted among that track's models.
All tracks. The five best models of the newest week are in colour.
Each point covers the 30 days before that Monday. Neighbouring points overlap.
A model appears once it has forecast 80 % of the tasks.
Below 1 beats the seasonal naive forecast. All models move with the season.
No scores yet.
Model Size vs. Arena Score
How much accuracy each model size buys. The line marks the best score reached at each size.
Rankings by Challenge
Rankings evaluated for the selected challenge definition.
Rankings by Frequency & Horizon Combinations
Rankings for the selected forecast frequency / horizon combination.